Mets at Reds
Last play · Vidal Bruján strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Reds100%
NYM 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 9 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Eugenio Suárez homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Sal Stewart scores. (inning 1) — +16% Reds
8JJ Bleday homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Matt McLain scores. Tyler Stephenson scores.0–12
2Eugenio Suárez hits a grand slam (7) to center field. Edwin Arroyo scores. JJ Bleday scores. Sal Stewart scores.0–9
2Sal Stewart singles on a ground ball to right fielder Carson Benge. Tyler Stephenson scores. Edwin Arroyo to 3rd. JJ Bleday to 2nd.0–5
2Francisco Alvarez challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: JJ Bleday walks. Matt McLain scores. Tyler Stephenson to 3rd. Edwin Arroyo to 2nd.0–4
1Eugenio Suárez homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Sal Stewart scores.0–3
1Spencer Steer grounds out, third baseman Brett Baty to first baseman Jared Young. Blake Dunn scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
