Mets at Reds
Last play · A.J. Ewing grounds out, shortstop Matt McLain to first baseman Sal Stewart.
Win probability
Reds100%
NYM 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 5 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 9 ↑
fair over 49.7% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-117 / -103
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Sal Stewart homers (14) on a fly ball to left field. Blake Dunn scores. JJ Bleday scores. (inning 1) — +24% Reds
6Mark Vientos homers (8) on a fly ball to left field. Marcus Semien scores.3–5
5Sal Stewart singles on a line drive to left fielder MJ Melendez. Edwin Arroyo scores. Blake Dunn to 2nd.1–5
3Bo Bichette singles on a ground ball to center fielder Blake Dunn. MJ Melendez scores. Francisco Alvarez to 2nd.1–4
1Spencer Steer homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field.0–4
1Sal Stewart homers (14) on a fly ball to left field. Blake Dunn scores. JJ Bleday scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
