Mets at Reds
Last play · Edwin Arroyo grounds out, shortstop Zack Short to first baseman Mark Vientos.
Win probability
Reds0%
NYM 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 7 – 1 CIN
Mets led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-137 / +114
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Juan Soto singles on a fly ball to center fielder Noelvi Marte. Luis Torrens scores. Bo Bichette to 2nd. (inning 3) — -14% Mets
8Juan Soto doubles (7) on a line drive to center fielder Noelvi Marte. Bo Bichette scores.9–1
8Bo Bichette singles on a ground ball to right fielder Spencer Steer. Carson Benge scores.8–1
5A.J. Ewing doubles (5) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Noelvi Marte. Marcus Semien scores. Francisco Alvarez scores.7–1
5Francisco Alvarez singles on a ground ball to left fielder JJ Bleday. Juan Soto scores. Marcus Semien to 2nd.5–1
5Mark Vientos out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Spencer Steer. Bo Bichette scores.4–1
3JJ Bleday out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder A.J. Ewing. Jose Trevino scores.3–1
3Mark Vientos singles on a ground ball to left fielder JJ Bleday. Juan Soto scores. Marcus Semien to 2nd.3–0
3Marcus Semien singles on a line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Bo Bichette scores. Juan Soto to 3rd.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
