Brewers at Reds
Last play · Spencer Steer grounds out, third baseman Joey Ortiz to first baseman Jake Bauers.
Win probability
Reds0%
MIL 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 0 – 0 CIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-156 / +129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Joey Ortiz out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Jake Bauers scores. Garrett Mitchell to 3rd. (inning 10) — -26% Brewers
10Sal Stewart grounds out, third baseman Joey Ortiz to first baseman Jake Bauers. Blake Dunn scores.2–1
10Cooper Pratt flies out to right fielder Noelvi Marte.2–0
10Joey Ortiz out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Jake Bauers scores. Garrett Mitchell to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
