Brewers at Reds
Last play · Blake Dunn flies out to center fielder Garrett Mitchell.
Win probability
Reds0%
MIL 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 0 – 0 CIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-108 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Bauers triples (1) on a ground ball to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Andrew Vaughn scores. (inning 6) — -14% Brewers
8Andrew Vaughn out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Blake Dunn. Brice Turang scores. William Contreras to 2nd.2–0
6Jake Bauers triples (1) on a ground ball to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Andrew Vaughn scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
