Brewers at Reds
Last play · Dane Myers grounds into a double play, shortstop Cooper Pratt to second baseman Brice Turang to first baseman Jake Bauers. Elly De La Cruz out at 2nd. Dane Myers out at 1st.
Win probability
Reds0%
MIL 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 3 – 0 CIN
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 49.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-131 / +109
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · William Contreras homers (8) on a fly ball to center field. Jackson Chourio scores. (inning 3) — -26% Brewers
8Spencer Steer homers (13) on a fly ball to center field. Elly De La Cruz scores.6–5
8Sal Stewart grounds out, shortstop Cooper Pratt to first baseman Jake Bauers. Edwin Arroyo scores. Elly De La Cruz to 3rd.6–3
7Eugenio Suárez doubles (9) on a ground ball to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Sal Stewart scores.6–2
7Andrew Vaughn doubles (12) on a ground ball to left fielder JJ Bleday. Brice Turang scores. William Contreras scores. Jake Bauers scores.6–1
6Blake Dunn doubles (7) on a ground ball to right fielder Sal Frelick. Noelvi Marte scores. Tyler Stephenson to 3rd.3–1
3Jake Bauers homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field.3–0
3William Contreras homers (8) on a fly ball to center field. Jackson Chourio scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
