Orioles at Reds
Last play · Nathaniel Lowe flies out to shortstop Gunnar Henderson.
Win probability
Reds0%
BAL 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 8 – 4 CIN
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 52.3% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Samuel Basallo homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field. Gunnar Henderson scores. Pete Alonso scores. (inning 1) — -28% Orioles
7Eugenio Suárez singles on a ground ball to third baseman Blaze Alexander. Sal Stewart scores.8–5
4Pete Alonso singles on a ground ball to left fielder JJ Bleday. Adley Rutschman scores.8–4
4Adley Rutschman doubles (18) on a line drive to right fielder Spencer Steer. Jackson Holliday scores. Blaze Alexander scores.7–4
4Blaze Alexander singles on a line drive to right fielder Spencer Steer. Colton Cowser scores. Leody Taveras scores. Jackson Holliday to 3rd.5–4
2Elly De La Cruz singles on a line drive to right fielder Leody Taveras. TJ Friedl scores.3–4
2TJ Friedl triples (1) on a line drive to right fielder Leody Taveras. Jose Trevino scores.3–3
2Jose Trevino doubles (3) on a line drive to right fielder Leody Taveras. Spencer Steer scores.3–2
1Eugenio Suárez singles on a line drive to center fielder Colton Cowser. Sal Stewart scores.3–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
