Orioles at Reds
Last play · Elly De La Cruz grounds out, first baseman Pete Alonso to pitcher Tyler Wells.
Win probability
Reds0%
BAL 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 3 – 0 CIN
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 10.5
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-123 / +102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Samuel Basallo homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field. Adley Rutschman scores. (inning 3) — -21% Orioles
3Samuel Basallo homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field. Adley Rutschman scores.3–0
1Pete Alonso called out on strikes. Taylor Ward to 3rd. Gunnar Henderson steals (7) 3rd base. Taylor Ward steals (3) 2nd base. Throwing error by catcher Tyler Stephenson.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
