Orioles at Reds
Last play · Adley Rutschman lines out to center fielder TJ Friedl.
Win probability
Reds100%
BAL 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 0 – 2 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 49.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-118 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Spencer Steer homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field. Eugenio Suárez scores. (inning 5) — +25% Reds
9Gunnar Henderson out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder JJ Bleday. Dylan Beavers scores.2–3
8Sal Stewart doubles (21) on a ground ball to left fielder Taylor Ward. Edwin Arroyo scores.1–3
6Coby Mayo singles on a ground ball to left fielder JJ Bleday, deflected by third baseman Sal Stewart. Taylor Ward scores.1–2
5Spencer Steer homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field. Eugenio Suárez scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
