Phillies at Reds
Last play · Gabriel Rincones Jr. grounds out, pitcher Rhett Lowder to first baseman Spencer Steer.
Win probability
Reds100%
PHI 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 3 – 7 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 47.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Sal Stewart homers (18) on a fly ball to right field. Elly De La Cruz scores. (inning 3) — +25% Reds
9Kyle Schwarber homers (32) on a fly ball to right field.5–11
6Noelvi Marte doubles (5) on a fly ball to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Elly De La Cruz scores. JJ Bleday scores. Spencer Steer scores.4–11
6JJ Bleday singles on a ground ball to center fielder Justin Crawford. TJ Friedl scores. Elly De La Cruz to 3rd.4–8
6J.T. Realmuto homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.4–7
5Bryson Stott out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder JJ Bleday. Bryce Harper scores.3–7
4JJ Bleday homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field.2–7
4Sal Stewart homers (19) on a fly ball to right field.2–6
4Elly De La Cruz homers (14) on a line drive to right center field. Edwin Arroyo scores.2–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
