Phillies at Reds
Last play · TJ Friedl challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: TJ Friedl called out on strikes.
Win probability
Reds0%
PHI 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 3 – 0 CIN
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-168 / +139
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Schwarber homers (31) on a line drive to right center field. Justin Crawford scores. (inning 3) — -21% Phillies
8Edmundo Sosa out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder TJ Friedl. Trea Turner scores.4–1
7Eugenio Suárez homers (9) on a fly ball to left field.3–1
3Kyle Schwarber homers (31) on a line drive to right center field. Justin Crawford scores.3–0
3Trea Turner grounds out, shortstop Elly De La Cruz to first baseman Sal Stewart. Derek Hill scores. Justin Crawford to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
