Phillies at Reds
Last play · Noelvi Marte grounds out, third baseman Alec Bohm to first baseman Bryce Harper.
Win probability
Reds0%
PHI 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 0 – 0 CIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 47.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-180 / +148
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Justin Crawford singles on a ground ball to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Derek Hill scores. (inning 8) — -26% Phillies
8Justin Crawford singles on a ground ball to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Derek Hill scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
