Cubs at Reds
Last play · Ian Happ strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Reds100%
CHC 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 0 – 1 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-121 / +101
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Elly De La Cruz homers (15) on a line drive to left center field. (inning 5) — +22% Reds
7JJ Bleday homers (15) on a fly ball to center field. Spencer Steer scores.0–4
7Sal Stewart out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Elly De La Cruz scores.0–2
5Elly De La Cruz homers (15) on a line drive to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
