Cubs at Reds
Last play · Spencer Steer flies out to left fielder Ian Happ.
Win probability
Reds0%
CHC 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 4 – 4 CIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alex Bregman homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Seiya Suzuki scores. (inning 7) — -26% Cubs
7Alex Bregman homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Seiya Suzuki scores.8–4
7Pete Crow-Armstrong singles on a ground ball to right fielder Noelvi Marte, deflected by first baseman Sal Stewart. Dansby Swanson scores.5–4
4Kevin Alcántara singles on a ground ball to center fielder Spencer Steer. Carson Kelly scores. Michael Busch scores. Ian Happ to 3rd.4–4
3Eugenio Suárez homers (11) on a fly ball to left field. JJ Bleday scores.2–4
3JJ Bleday singles on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Sal Stewart scores. JJ Bleday to 2nd.2–2
3Spencer Steer grounds out, shortstop Dansby Swanson to first baseman Michael Busch. Elly De La Cruz scores.2–1
1Michael Busch doubles (16) on a fly ball to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Alex Bregman scores.2–0
1Alex Bregman doubles (15) on a fly ball to center fielder Spencer Steer. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
