Guardians at Reds
Last play · JJ Bleday flies out to right fielder Angel Martínez.
Win probability
Reds0%
CLE 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 5 – 5 CIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+136 / -164
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Manzardo hits a grand slam (12) to right field. José Ramírez scores. Chase DeLauter scores. Travis Bazzana scores. (inning 1) — -38% Guardians
8Brayan Rocchio out on a sacrifice bunt, pitcher Sam Moll to second baseman Edwin Arroyo. Chase DeLauter scores. Travis Bazzana to 2nd.6–5
5Chase DeLauter out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder TJ Friedl. José Ramírez scores.5–5
4Sal Stewart singles on a line drive to left fielder Steven Kwan. Edwin Arroyo scores. Elly De La Cruz scores.4–5
4Edwin Arroyo singles on a ground ball to center fielder Petey Halpin. Tyler Stephenson scores.4–3
4Tyler Stephenson doubles (14) on a line drive to left fielder Steven Kwan. Nathaniel Lowe scores.4–2
3Sal Stewart homers (22) on a fly ball to center field.4–1
1Kyle Manzardo hits a grand slam (12) to right field. José Ramírez scores. Chase DeLauter scores. Travis Bazzana scores.4–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
