Guardians at Reds
Last play · Petey Halpin flies out sharply to center fielder Dane Myers.
Win probability
Reds100%
CLE 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 0 – 2 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-144 / +119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ke'Bryan Hayes strikes out swinging. (inning 5) — +10% Reds
5Ke'Bryan Hayes strikes out swinging.0–2
1JJ Bleday homers (18) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
