Pirates at Reds
Last play · Pirates challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was upheld: Nathaniel Lowe grounds into a force out, shortstop Jared Triolo to second baseman Brandon Lowe. Elly De La Cruz scores. Sal Stewart to 3rd. Tyler Stephenson out at 2nd. Nathaniel Lowe to 1st.
Win probability
Reds100%
PIT 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 1 – 2 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 10
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Lowe homers (23) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 6) — -23% Pirates
9Pirates challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was upheld: Nathaniel Lowe grounds into a force out, shortstop Jared Triolo to second baseman Brandon Lowe. Elly De La Cruz scores. Sal Stewart to 3rd. Tyler Stephenson out at 2nd. Nathaniel Lowe to 1st.2–3
6Brandon Lowe homers (23) on a fly ball to right field.2–2
5Jacob Gonzalez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Dane Myers. Nick Gonzales scores.1–2
3Sal Stewart singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Elly De La Cruz scores.0–2
3Elly De La Cruz doubles (16) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jhostynxon Garcia. Matt McLain scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
