Guardians at Reds
Last play · Sal Stewart called out on strikes.
Win probability
Reds0%
CLE 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 4 – 0 CIN
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 51.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-139 / +115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Travis Bazzana singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ivan Johnson. Steven Kwan scores. José Ramírez to 3rd. Chase DeLauter to 2nd. (inning 5) — -16% Guardians
7Steven Kwan out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Dane Myers. Gabriel Arias scores.6–1
7Kyle Manzardo homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field.5–1
6Noelvi Marte singles on a ground ball to center fielder Petey Halpin. Dane Myers scores. Tyler Stephenson to 2nd.4–1
5Patrick Bailey out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Travis Bazzana scores.4–0
5Gabriel Arias walks. Chase DeLauter scores. Travis Bazzana to 3rd. Kyle Manzardo to 2nd.3–0
5Kyle Manzardo walks. José Ramírez scores. Chase DeLauter to 3rd. Travis Bazzana to 2nd.2–0
5Travis Bazzana singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ivan Johnson. Steven Kwan scores. José Ramírez to 3rd. Chase DeLauter to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
