Pirates at Reds
Last play · Endy Rodríguez challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Endy Rodríguez called out on strikes.
Win probability
Reds100%
PIT 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 4 – 5 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Sal Stewart singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jake Mangum. Noelvi Marte scores. Matt McLain scores. Sal Stewart to 2nd. (inning 8) — +45% Reds
8Nathaniel Lowe reaches on a fielder's choice. Sal Stewart scores. Tyler Stephenson to 3rd. Nathaniel Lowe to 2nd. Missed catch error by second baseman Brandon Lowe, assist to third baseman Nick Gonzales.7–8
8Sal Stewart singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jake Mangum. Noelvi Marte scores. Matt McLain scores. Sal Stewart to 2nd.7–7
8Brandon Lowe singles on a ground ball to center fielder Dane Myers. Henry Davis scores. Jake Mangum to 3rd.7–5
8Jake Mangum singles on a ground ball to left fielder JJ Bleday. Endy Rodríguez scores. Henry Davis to 3rd.6–5
8Henry Davis singles on a fly ball to left fielder JJ Bleday. Nick Gonzales scores. Endy Rodríguez to 2nd.5–5
5Esmerlyn Valdez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Brandon Lowe scores.4–5
4Sal Stewart homers (23) on a fly ball to center field. Elly De La Cruz scores.3–5
3JJ Bleday homers (19) on a fly ball to right field.3–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
