Pirates at Reds
Last play · Endy Rodríguez flies out to left fielder JJ Bleday.
Win probability
Reds100%
PIT 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 1 – 9 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+118 / -142
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyler Stephenson doubles (16) on a fly ball to center fielder Jhostynxon Garcia. JJ Bleday scores. (inning 1) — +9% Reds
8Tyler Stephenson homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.2–10
8Jared Triolo singles on a line drive to center fielder Dane Myers. Jacob Gonzalez scores.2–9
4Dane Myers doubles (8) on a ground ball to left fielder Jake Mangum. Nathaniel Lowe scores.1–9
4Nathaniel Lowe doubles (17) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jhostynxon Garcia. JJ Bleday scores.1–8
4Bryan Reynolds singles on a ground ball to center fielder Dane Myers. Jake Mangum scores.1–7
3Elly De La Cruz singles on a ground ball to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Dane Myers scores. Noelvi Marte scores.0–7
3Matt McLain out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jhostynxon Garcia. Nathaniel Lowe scores.0–5
2Ke'Bryan Hayes homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.0–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
