Athletics at Reds
Last play · Tommy White strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Reds100%
ATH 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 1 – 2 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+154 / -164
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Noelvi Marte out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Sal Stewart scores. (inning 6) — +19% Reds
6Noelvi Marte out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Sal Stewart scores.2–3
6Jonah Heim doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Tyler Soderstrom scores.2–2
5Matt McLain homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.1–2
2Jose Trevino singles on a ground ball to left fielder Tyler Soderstrom. Noelvi Marte scores.1–1
1Lawrence Butler homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
