Athletics at Reds
Last play · Jonathan Ornelas strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Reds100%
ATH 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 3 – 5 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 48.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+153 / -165
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyler Soderstrom singles on a ground ball to center fielder Dane Myers. Henry Bolte scores. Tommy White scores. Jonah Heim to 2nd. (inning 4) — -26% Athletics
9Brian Serven homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Lawrence Butler scores.5–6
7JJ Bleday homers (20) on a fly ball to right center field.3–6
5Dane Myers walks. Sal Stewart scores. JJ Bleday to 3rd. Eugenio Suárez to 2nd.3–5
5Eugenio Suárez walks. Matt McLain scores. Sal Stewart to 3rd. JJ Bleday to 2nd.3–4
4Tyler Stephenson homers (10) on a fly ball to center field.3–3
4Sal Stewart homers (25) on a fly ball to center field.3–2
4Reds challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was overturned: Lawrence Butler grounds into a double play, second baseman Matt McLain to shortstop Elly De La Cruz to first baseman Sal Stewart. Jonah Heim scores. Tyler Soderstrom to 3rd. Max Muncy out at 2nd. Lawrence Butler out at 1st.3–1
4Tyler Soderstrom singles on a ground ball to center fielder Dane Myers. Henry Bolte scores. Tommy White scores. Jonah Heim to 2nd.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
