Marlins at Reds
Last play · Otto Lopez flies out to center fielder Dane Myers.
Win probability
Reds100%
MIA 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 0 – 0 CIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Eugenio Suárez doubles (15) on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Tyler Stephenson scores. (inning 6) — +19% Reds
6Eugenio Suárez doubles (15) on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Tyler Stephenson scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
