Cardinals at Reds
Last play · Elly De La Cruz doubles (19) on a ground ball to left fielder José Fermín, deflected by third baseman Blaze Jordan. Tyler Stephenson scores.
Win probability
Reds100%
STL 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 2 – 1 CIN
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-112 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dane Myers homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 9) — +42% Reds
10Elly De La Cruz doubles (19) on a ground ball to left fielder José Fermín, deflected by third baseman Blaze Jordan. Tyler Stephenson scores.5–6
9Dane Myers homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.5–5
8Bryan Torres singles on a ground ball to left fielder JJ Bleday. Jordan Walker scores. Masyn Winn to 3rd.5–4
6Reds challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Héctor Rodríguez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Nathan Church. Eugenio Suárez scores. Michael Toglia scores. Héctor Rodríguez out at 2nd on the throw, center fielder Nathan Church to first baseman Alec Burleson to second baseman JJ Wetherholt.4–4
6Michael Toglia doubles (2) on a line drive to right fielder Joshua Báez. JJ Bleday scores. Eugenio Suárez to 3rd.4–2
6Blaze Jordan singles on a line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Nathan Church scores. Bryan Torres out at 3rd on the throw, left fielder JJ Bleday to third baseman Eugenio Suárez to shortstop Matt McLain.4–1
6Nathan Church singles on a line drive to center fielder TJ Friedl. Jordan Walker scores.3–1
4Masyn Winn singles on a ground ball to right fielder Héctor Rodríguez. Alec Burleson scores. Joshua Báez to 2nd.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
