Marlins at Reds
Last play · Matt McLain strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Reds0%
MIA 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 0 – 0 CIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 48.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-118 / +110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Heriberto Hernández homers (18) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 8) — -26% Marlins
9Javier Sanoja homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Agustín Ramírez scores. Xavier Edwards scores.7–1
9Agustín Ramírez doubles (7) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Otto Lopez scores. Heriberto Hernández scores.4–1
8Tyler Stephenson homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.2–1
8Jose Trevino challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Griffin Conine walks. Agustín Ramírez scores. Xavier Edwards to 3rd. Javier Sanoja to 2nd.2–0
8Heriberto Hernández homers (18) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
