Cardinals at Reds
STL4–
CIN5Last play · Masyn Winn grounds out softly, pitcher Emilio Pagán to first baseman Sal Stewart.
Win probability
Reds100%
STL 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 2 – 0 CIN
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -134
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Sal Stewart homers (27) on a fly ball to center field. Matt McLain scores. Elly De La Cruz scores. (inning 6) — +51% Reds
9Jordan Walker homers (25) on a fly ball to right center field. JJ Wetherholt scores.4–5
8Dane Myers singles on a soft bunt ground ball to pitcher Justin Bruihl. Matt McLain scores. Sal Stewart to 2nd.2–5
8Matt McLain singles on a soft bunt ground ball to third baseman Blaze Jordan. Jose Trevino scores. Throwing error by third baseman Blaze Jordan.2–4
6Sal Stewart homers (27) on a fly ball to center field. Matt McLain scores. Elly De La Cruz scores.2–3
4Bryan Torres singles on a line drive to right fielder Michael Toglia. Nathan Church scores. Masyn Winn to 3rd.2–0
4Nathan Church singles on a ground ball to left fielder JJ Bleday. Alec Burleson scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.