Cardinals at Reds
Last play · Eugenio Suárez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Reds0%
STL 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 1 – 0 CIN
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / +107
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Masyn Winn homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 5) — -16% Cardinals
8Joshua Báez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Dane Myers. Jordan Walker scores.3–0
7José Fermín doubles (12) on a fly ball to left fielder JJ Bleday. Masyn Winn scores.2–0
5Masyn Winn homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
