Cardinals at Reds
Last play · Matt McLain lines out sharply to right fielder Jordan Walker.
Win probability
Reds0%
STL 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 4 – 0 CIN
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / +103
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · JJ Wetherholt reaches on a fielding error by center fielder Dane Myers. José Fermín scores. Masyn Winn scores. JJ Wetherholt to 2nd. (inning 9) — -71% Cardinals
9Tyler Stephenson walks. Elly De La Cruz scores. Sal Stewart to 3rd. JJ Bleday to 2nd.10–9
9Sal Stewart singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder José Fermín. Dane Myers scores. Eugenio Suárez scores. Elly De La Cruz to 2nd.10–8
9Eugenio Suárez singles on a line drive to center fielder Everson Pereira. Matt McLain scores. Dane Myers to 2nd.10–6
9José Fermín singles on a ground ball to left fielder TJ Friedl. Alec Burleson scores. Jordan Walker scores. Joshua Báez to 2nd.10–5
9Joshua Báez walks. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson to 3rd. Jordan Walker to 2nd.8–5
9Alec Burleson singles on a ground ball to right fielder JJ Bleday. JJ Wetherholt scores. Iván Herrera to 3rd.7–5
9JJ Wetherholt reaches on a fielding error by center fielder Dane Myers. José Fermín scores. Masyn Winn scores. JJ Wetherholt to 2nd.6–5
6Matt McLain hits a grand slam (12) to left field. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores. Sal Stewart scores. JJ Bleday scores.4–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
