Padres at Reds
Last play · Samad Taylor strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Reds100%
SD 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 2 – 2 CIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 52% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jose Trevino singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Elly De La Cruz scores. Sal Stewart to 3rd. Matt McLain to 2nd. (inning 8) — +29% Reds
9Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (19) on a fly ball to right field.3–4
8Juan Brito out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Samad Taylor. Sal Stewart scores.2–4
8Jose Trevino singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Elly De La Cruz scores. Sal Stewart to 3rd. Matt McLain to 2nd.2–3
5Héctor Rodríguez singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jase Bowen. Edwin Arroyo scores. Héctor Rodríguez to 2nd.2–2
5Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (18) on a line drive to right field.2–1
1JJ Bleday singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jase Bowen. Héctor Rodríguez scores.1–1
1Manny Machado out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Héctor Rodríguez. Samad Taylor scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
