Brewers at Reds
Last play · Elly De La Cruz strikes out swinging, catcher William Contreras to first baseman Jake Bauers.
Win probability
Reds0%
MIL 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 9 – 6 CIN
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-155 / +128
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cooper Pratt triples (2) on a ground ball to right fielder Héctor Rodríguez. Christian Yelich scores. William Contreras scores. Brice Turang scores. (inning 5) — -43% Brewers
7Sal Stewart singles on a ground ball to right fielder Sal Frelick. Dane Myers scores.10–7
6William Contreras doubles (25) on a sharp line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Jake Bauers scores.10–6
5David Hamilton strikes out swinging.9–6
5Cooper Pratt triples (2) on a ground ball to right fielder Héctor Rodríguez. Christian Yelich scores. William Contreras scores. Brice Turang scores.8–6
5Brice Turang hit by pitch. Jackson Chourio scores. Christian Yelich to 3rd. William Contreras to 2nd.5–6
3Eugenio Suárez homers (21) on a fly ball to center field. Elly De La Cruz scores. Tyler Stephenson scores.4–6
3Brice Turang doubles (30) on a fly ball to right fielder Héctor Rodríguez. Jackson Chourio scores. William Contreras scores.4–3
2Matt McLain homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field. Eugenio Suárez scores.2–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
