Orioles at Guardians
Last play · George Valera grounds out, second baseman Jeremiah Jackson to first baseman Pete Alonso.
Win probability
Guardians0%
BAL 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 0 – 0 CLE
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jeremiah Jackson homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. Leody Taveras scores. Weston Wilson scores. (inning 8) — -65% Orioles
8Jeremiah Jackson homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. Leody Taveras scores. Weston Wilson scores.6–4
8Weston Wilson doubles (1) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Angel Martínez. Pete Alonso scores. Dylan Beavers scores. Leody Taveras to 3rd.3–4
8Johnathan Rodríguez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Chase DeLauter. Taylor Ward scores.1–4
7Daniel Schneemann hits a grand slam (2) to right field. Steven Kwan scores. Chase DeLauter scores. José Ramírez scores.0–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
