Rays at Guardians
Last play · Richie Palacios strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Guardians100%
TB 0%CLE 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 0 – 3 CLE
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 6.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-101 / -119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Chase DeLauter singles on a ground ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Brayan Rocchio scores. Steven Kwan scores. (inning 5) — +18% Guardians
7Jake Fraley reaches on a fielder's choice. Yandy Díaz scores. Jake Fraley to 2nd. Throwing error by second baseman Travis Bazzana.1–3
5Chase DeLauter singles on a ground ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Brayan Rocchio scores. Steven Kwan scores.0–3
3Kyle Manzardo out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Brayan Rocchio scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
