Reds at Guardians
Last play · Travis Bazzana grounds out, second baseman Matt McLain to first baseman Sal Stewart.
Win probability
Guardians0%
CIN 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 3 – 0 CLE
Reds led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50.3% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+118 / -142
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt McLain walks. JJ Bleday scores. Spencer Steer to 3rd. Nathaniel Lowe to 2nd. (inning 2) — -15% Reds
9Angel Martínez grounds out to first baseman Sal Stewart. Kyle Manzardo scores.7–6
9JJ Bleday grounds into a force out, second baseman Travis Bazzana to shortstop Brayan Rocchio. Dane Myers scores. Sal Stewart out at 2nd. JJ Bleday to 1st.7–5
8José Ramírez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Will Benson. Travis Bazzana scores.6–5
8Steven Kwan walks. Angel Martínez scores. Travis Bazzana to 3rd. Brayan Rocchio to 2nd.6–4
8Brayan Rocchio walks. Kyle Manzardo scores. Angel Martínez to 3rd. Travis Bazzana to 2nd.6–3
8Travis Bazzana singles on a line drive to right fielder Spencer Steer. Rhys Hoskins scores. Kyle Manzardo to 3rd. Angel Martínez to 2nd.6–2
8Matt McLain homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. Spencer Steer scores.6–1
8Spencer Steer singles on a line drive to left fielder Angel Martínez. JJ Bleday scores.4–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
