Angels at Guardians
Last play · Zach Neto strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Guardians100%
LAA 0%CLE 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAA 2 – 3 CLE
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+131 / -158
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Angels favored ↓
Biggest swing · Zach Neto homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Oswald Peraza scores. (inning 5) — -19% Angels
6Daniel Schneemann singles on a line drive to center fielder Mike Trout. Rhys Hoskins scores. Travis Bazzana to 2nd.2–4
5Zach Neto homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Oswald Peraza scores.2–3
3Chase DeLauter out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Mike Trout. Angel Martínez scores.0–3
1David Fry grounds out softly, pitcher Reid Detmers to first baseman Vaughn Grissom. José Ramírez scores. Chase DeLauter to 2nd.0–2
1Angel Martínez homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
