Nationals at Guardians
Last play · Steven Kwan grounds out, shortstop Nasim Nuñez to first baseman Luis García Jr.
Win probability
Guardians0%
WSH 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 8 – 2 CLE
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+139 / -169
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Curtis Mead homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Luis García Jr. scores. (inning 1) — -16% Nationals
6Luis García Jr. singles on a ground ball to center fielder Steven Kwan. Daylen Lile scores. Jacob Young scores. Drew Millas to 3rd.10–2
5Curtis Mead homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.8–2
4Angel Martínez doubles (9) on a fly ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Kyle Manzardo scores.7–2
3CJ Abrams homers (12) on a fly ball to right field.7–1
2Rhys Hoskins homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.6–1
2Luis García Jr. homers (4) on a line drive to right field. James Wood scores.6–0
2Jacob Young homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.4–0
1Curtis Mead homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Luis García Jr. scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
