Reds at Guardians
Last play · Elly De La Cruz flies out to left fielder Steven Kwan.
Win probability
Guardians100%
CIN 0%CLE 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 2 – 6 CLE
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+133 / -161
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Chase DeLauter homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. José Ramírez scores. (inning 1) — +17% Guardians
9Dane Myers singles on a ground ball to third baseman Daniel Schneemann. Blake Dunn scores.3–10
8José Ramírez homers (7) on a fly ball to center field. Brayan Rocchio scores.2–10
7Angel Martínez homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Steven Kwan scores.2–8
5Kyle Manzardo homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.2–6
4Brayan Rocchio homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.2–5
4Nathaniel Lowe singles on a line drive to left fielder Angel Martínez. Spencer Steer scores. Sal Stewart to 2nd.2–4
3Kyle Manzardo homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Chase DeLauter scores.1–4
3Elly De La Cruz homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
