Reds at Guardians
Last play · Nathaniel Lowe lines out sharply to left fielder Steven Kwan.
Win probability
Guardians100%
CIN 0%CLE 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 4 – 2 CLE
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -151
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Angel Martínez homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. Kyle Manzardo scores. (inning 7) — +31% Guardians
8Travis Bazzana reaches on a fielding error by pitcher Connor Phillips. José Ramírez scores. Chase DeLauter to 2nd.4–7
7Angel Martínez homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. Kyle Manzardo scores.4–6
6Rhys Hoskins out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Spencer Steer. Angel Martínez scores.4–4
6Brayan Rocchio walks.4–3
5Spencer Steer doubles (8) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Daniel Schneemann. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores. Elly De La Cruz scores. Sal Stewart out at home on the throw, center fielder Daniel Schneemann to shortstop Brayan Rocchio to catcher Austin Hedges.4–2
5Sal Stewart walks. Blake Dunn scores. Ke'Bryan Hayes to 3rd. Elly De La Cruz to 2nd.2–2
3Dane Myers homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.1–2
2Brayan Rocchio singles on a line drive to left fielder Spencer Steer. Steven Kwan scores. Angel Martínez scores. Austin Hedges to 2nd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
