Red Sox at Guardians
Last play · Jarren Duran strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Guardians100%
BOS 0%CLE 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 3 – 4 CLE
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50.1% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Angel Martínez singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Chase DeLauter scores. Rhys Hoskins scores. Kyle Manzardo to 2nd. Fielding error by center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. (inning 1) — +16% Guardians
5Jarren Duran out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Daniel Schneemann. Marcelo Mayer scores.3–4
5Caleb Durbin doubles (10) on a line drive to right fielder Chase DeLauter. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Marcelo Mayer to 3rd.2–4
5Marcelo Mayer singles on a ground ball to center fielder Daniel Schneemann. Mickey Gasper scores. Isiah Kiner-Falefa to 3rd.1–4
1Patrick Bailey out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Kyle Manzardo scores. Angel Martínez to 3rd. Daniel Schneemann to 2nd.0–4
1Angel Martínez singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Chase DeLauter scores. Rhys Hoskins scores. Kyle Manzardo to 2nd. Fielding error by center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela.0–3
1Rhys Hoskins singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. José Ramírez scores. Chase DeLauter to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
