Red Sox at Guardians
Last play · Brayan Rocchio grounds out, third baseman Caleb Durbin to first baseman Willson Contreras.
Win probability
Guardians0%
BOS 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 1 CLE
Tied through 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 7 ↓
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was overturned: Connor Wong doubles (7) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Stuart Fairchild. Marcelo Mayer scores. (inning 6) — -14% Red Sox
9Jarren Duran homers (9) on a line drive to right field. Masataka Yoshida scores. Connor Wong scores.9–1
9Connor Wong singles on a line drive to left fielder Stuart Fairchild. Willson Contreras scores. Marcelo Mayer scores. Masataka Yoshida to 3rd. Connor Wong to 2nd. Throwing error by left fielder Stuart Fairchild.6–1
9Masataka Yoshida walks. Wilyer Abreu scores. Willson Contreras to 3rd. Marcelo Mayer to 2nd.4–1
8Caleb Durbin doubles (11) on a line drive to right fielder Petey Halpin. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores.3–1
6Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was overturned: Connor Wong doubles (7) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Stuart Fairchild. Marcelo Mayer scores.2–1
4Caleb Durbin out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Angel Martínez. Andruw Monasterio scores.1–1
1José Ramírez doubles (13) on a line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu, deflected by first baseman Willson Contreras. Travis Bazzana scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
