Red Sox at Guardians
Last play · David Fry strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Guardians0%
BOS 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 3 – 4 CLE
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 47.9% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -114
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Masataka Yoshida singles on a line drive to center fielder Stuart Fairchild. Carlos Narváez scores. Jarren Duran scores. Wilyer Abreu to 3rd. (inning 7) — -31% Red Sox
7Caleb Durbin triples (1) on a line drive to right fielder Chase DeLauter. Masataka Yoshida scores. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores.9–4
7Isiah Kiner-Falefa singles on a line drive to center fielder Stuart Fairchild. Wilyer Abreu scores. Masataka Yoshida to 2nd.7–4
7Masataka Yoshida singles on a line drive to center fielder Stuart Fairchild. Carlos Narváez scores. Jarren Duran scores. Wilyer Abreu to 3rd.6–4
7Wilyer Abreu walks. Connor Wong scores. Carlos Narváez to 3rd. Jarren Duran to 2nd.4–4
5Chase DeLauter singles on a ground ball to left fielder Masataka Yoshida. José Ramírez scores.3–4
5José Ramírez doubles (14) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Masataka Yoshida. Brayan Rocchio scores.3–3
5Wilyer Abreu singles on a fly ball to left fielder David Fry. Connor Wong scores. Wilyer Abreu out at 2nd on the throw, left fielder David Fry to third baseman José Ramírez to second baseman Travis Bazzana. Jarren Duran to 3rd.3–2
5Mickey Gasper out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder David Fry. Marcelo Mayer scores.2–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
