Yankees at Guardians
Last play · Angel Martínez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Guardians0%
NYY 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 2 – 2 CLE
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 52.1% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 8) — -33% Yankees
8Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.3–2
3Angel Martínez singles on a ground ball to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Chase DeLauter scores. Kyle Manzardo to 3rd. Rhys Hoskins to 2nd.2–2
3Chase DeLauter singles on a ground ball to center fielder Trent Grisham. José Ramírez scores.2–1
2Spencer Jones homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
