Yankees at Guardians
Last play · Angel Martínez lines out to third baseman Ryan McMahon.
Win probability
Guardians0%
NYY 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 3 – 3 CLE
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+101 / -122
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jazz Chisholm Jr. triples (2) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Angel Martínez. Trent Grisham scores. José Caballero scores. (inning 2) — -25% Yankees
9Austin Hedges doubles (6) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Trent Grisham. Stuart Fairchild scores.8–4
7Jazz Chisholm Jr. grounds into a force out, second baseman Travis Bazzana to shortstop Brayan Rocchio. Trent Grisham scores. José Caballero out at 2nd. Jazz Chisholm Jr. to 1st.8–3
7José Caballero singles on a ground ball to right fielder Angel Martínez. Cody Bellinger scores. Trent Grisham to 3rd.7–3
6Paul Goldschmidt singles on a line drive to right fielder Angel Martínez. Anthony Volpe scores. Ali Sánchez to 3rd.6–3
6Anthony Volpe doubles (4) on a line drive to left fielder David Fry. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores.5–3
6José Caballero out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder David Fry in foul territory. Trent Grisham scores.4–3
4Brayan Rocchio out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder José Caballero. Stuart Fairchild scores. Austin Hedges to 3rd.3–3
4Austin Hedges doubles (5) on a ground ball to right fielder José Caballero. Travis Bazzana scores. Stuart Fairchild to 3rd.3–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
