Yankees at Guardians
Last play · Brayan Rocchio grounds out, second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. to first baseman Ben Rice.
Win probability
Guardians0%
NYY 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 4 – 3 CLE
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -132
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cody Bellinger singles on a ground ball to left fielder Steven Kwan. Ali Sánchez scores. Ben Rice scores. Max Schuemann out at 3rd on the throw, left fielder Steven Kwan to third baseman José Ramírez to shortstop Brayan Rocchio. (inning 10) — -44% Yankees
10Cody Bellinger singles on a ground ball to left fielder Steven Kwan. Ali Sánchez scores. Ben Rice scores. Max Schuemann out at 3rd on the throw, left fielder Steven Kwan to third baseman José Ramírez to shortstop Brayan Rocchio.7–5
8Paul Goldschmidt grounds into a force out, second baseman Travis Bazzana to shortstop Brayan Rocchio. Trent Grisham scores. Ben Rice out at 2nd. Paul Goldschmidt to 1st.5–5
6Angel Martínez homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field. David Fry scores.4–5
5Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was overturned: Ryan McMahon homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.4–3
3Kyle Manzardo singles on a ground ball to center fielder Trent Grisham, deflected by shortstop José Caballero. José Ramírez scores. Chase DeLauter to 3rd.3–3
3Brayan Rocchio grounds out to first baseman Ben Rice. Patrick Bailey scores.3–2
3Cody Bellinger grounds into a force out, first baseman Kyle Manzardo to shortstop Brayan Rocchio. Trent Grisham scores. Ben Rice out at 2nd. Cody Bellinger to 1st. Throwing error by shortstop Brayan Rocchio.3–0
1Paul Goldschmidt homers (8) on a fly ball to left field. Ben Rice scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
