Tigers at Guardians
Last play · Dillon Dingler flies out to left fielder Angel Martínez.
Win probability
Guardians100%
DET 0%CLE 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 1 – 2 CLE
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · James Outman homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 3) — -15% Tigers
8Spencer Torkelson homers (11) on a fly ball to center field.2–3
6Steven Kwan singles on a line drive to center fielder James Outman. Angel Martínez scores.1–3
3James Outman homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.1–2
2Brayan Rocchio triples (2) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Kerry Carpenter. Patrick Bailey scores.0–2
2Patrick Bailey singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. Rhys Hoskins scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
