Mariners at Guardians
Last play · J.P. Crawford grounds out, shortstop Brayan Rocchio to first baseman Rhys Hoskins.
Win probability
Guardians100%
SEA 0%CLE 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 3 – 1 CLE
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 49.4% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Chase DeLauter singles on a ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Cooper Ingle scores. Daniel Schneemann scores. Steven Kwan to 3rd. (inning 8) — +45% Guardians
9Victor Robles reaches on a throwing error by second baseman Travis Bazzana. Cole Young scores. Colt Emerson to 3rd. Victor Robles to 2nd.5–6
8Mariners challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Mariners challenged (fair or foul in outfield), call on the field was upheld: Rhys Hoskins doubles (13) on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Steven Kwan scores. Chase DeLauter scores.4–6
8Chase DeLauter singles on a ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Cooper Ingle scores. Daniel Schneemann scores. Steven Kwan to 3rd.4–4
8Daniel Schneemann singles on a ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Brayan Rocchio scores. Cooper Ingle to 2nd.4–2
6Julio Rodríguez singles on a ground ball to second baseman Travis Bazzana. Victor Robles scores.4–1
5Travis Bazzana out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Gabriel Arias scores.3–1
3Randy Arozarena reaches on a throwing error by shortstop Brayan Rocchio. Josh Naylor scores.3–0
3Josh Naylor doubles (11) on a line drive to right fielder Kahlil Watson. Julio Rodríguez scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
