Rangers at Guardians
Last play · Brayan Rocchio lines out to left fielder Alejandro Osuna.
Win probability
Guardians0%
TEX 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 1 – 2 CLE
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 49.7% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -157
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gabriel Arias homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 5) — +22% Guardians
9Justin Foscue doubles (6) on a line drive to left fielder Steven Kwan. Cam Cauley scores. Evan Carter scores. Fielding error by left fielder Steven Kwan.6–3
7Kyle Manzardo flies out to left fielder Alejandro Osuna.4–3
7Justin Foscue doubles (5) on a ground ball to left fielder Steven Kwan, deflected by third baseman Gabriel Arias. Nicky Lopez scores.4–2
7Nicky Lopez singles on a line drive to center fielder Daniel Schneemann. Cam Cauley scores.3–2
6Jake Burger singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Steven Kwan. Evan Carter scores. Josh Jung to 3rd.2–2
5Chase DeLauter doubles (13) on a line drive to right fielder Ezequiel Duran. Austin Hedges scores.1–2
5Gabriel Arias homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
4Jake Burger grounds out, third baseman Gabriel Arias to first baseman Rhys Hoskins. Josh Jung scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
