Rangers at Guardians
Last play · Jake Burger flies out to left fielder Steven Kwan.
Win probability
Guardians100%
TEX 0%CLE 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 1 – 5 CLE
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 50.1% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · David Fry homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. Austin Hedges scores. Daniel Schneemann scores. (inning 2) — +25% Guardians
8Austin Hedges homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Kahlil Watson scores.4–9
8Elias Díaz homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.4–7
7Rhys Hoskins walks. Chase DeLauter scores. Wild pitch by pitcher Winston Santos.3–7
7Chase DeLauter singles on a ground ball to right fielder Ezequiel Duran. Steven Kwan scores.3–6
6Nicky Lopez doubles (2) on a ground ball to left fielder David Fry. Alejandro Osuna scores.3–5
6Elias Díaz grounds out, second baseman Daniel Schneemann to first baseman Rhys Hoskins. Kyle Higashioka scores. Alejandro Osuna to 2nd.2–5
3Austin Hedges challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Kyle Higashioka walks. Justin Foscue scores. Josh Jung to 3rd. Ezequiel Duran to 2nd.1–5
2David Fry homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. Austin Hedges scores. Daniel Schneemann scores.0–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
