Rangers at Guardians
Last play · Cooper Ingle called out on strikes.
Win probability
Guardians0%
TEX 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 2 – 2 CLE
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Joc Pederson homers (14) on a fly ball to center field. Nicky Lopez scores. (inning 3) — -23% Rangers
8Josh Jung homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.4–2
7Alejandro Osuna flies out to left fielder Cooper Ingle. Ezequiel Duran scores. Throwing error by left fielder Cooper Ingle.3–2
3Joc Pederson homers (14) on a fly ball to center field. Nicky Lopez scores.2–2
1Kyle Manzardo homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. Chase DeLauter scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
