White Sox at Guardians
Last play · David Fry grounds out, third baseman Colson Montgomery to first baseman Miguel Vargas.
Win probability
Guardians0%
CWS 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCWS 1 – 1 CLE
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -148
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%White Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Colson Montgomery homers (22) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 8) — -33% White Sox
9Miguel Vargas out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder David Fry. Tristan Peters scores.3–1
8Colson Montgomery homers (22) on a fly ball to right field.2–1
5Austin Hedges homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
1Colson Montgomery doubles (16) on a fly ball to left fielder Cooper Ingle. Miguel Vargas scores. Colson Montgomery to 3rd. Colson Montgomery advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by left fielder Cooper Ingle.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
