White Sox at Guardians
Last play · Gabriel Arias strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Guardians0%
CWS 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCWS 6 – 6 CLE
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+122 / -147
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%White Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gabriel Arias homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Chase DeLauter scores. Kyle Manzardo scores. (inning 5) — +42% Guardians
6Sam Antonacci grounds out, first baseman Kyle Manzardo to second baseman Travis Bazzana. Braden Montgomery scores. Chase Meidroth to 3rd. Tristan Peters to 2nd.7–6
5Gabriel Arias homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Chase DeLauter scores. Kyle Manzardo scores.6–6
3Colson Montgomery homers (23) on a line drive to right center field. Andrew Benintendi scores.6–3
3Andrew Benintendi singles on a fly ball to right fielder Chase DeLauter. Miguel Vargas scores.4–3
2Tristan Peters homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.3–3
1Daniel Schneemann singles on a line drive to center fielder Tristan Peters. Kyle Manzardo scores. Gabriel Arias to 3rd. Daniel Schneemann to 2nd.2–3
1Chase DeLauter homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. Travis Bazzana scores.2–2
1Kyle Teel homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Miguel Vargas scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
